Everything is relative

Chile confronts crime and Ecuador looks for new ideas

As anyone who has traveled in South America (or the world really) knows, what’s true in one country may not be true in another. Even in countries that share so much common history as the Andean nations; language, customs, and social norms vary greatly from Colombia to Chile. Words that are innocent in Bolivia are unspeakably obscene in Argentina and believe me, given the Argentine love of swearing, that’s saying something. The same applies to crime.

Chile

Three national police killed in a 23-day stretch, all types of violent crime on the rise in Santiago, and a police station attack in a northern city made April an awful month for crime. In a country that prides itself on adherence to rules, this was unprecedented. The 44 percent surge in crime compared to 2021, which 60 percent of Chileans blame on foreigners, has pushed the government to promulgate a new security law called “Streets without violence.” Focused on the 46 communities in which 65 percent of crime occurred, the plan uses improved criminal prosecution, increased police presence, and taking illegal weapons out of circulation to stem the tide. One of the biggest talking points for the program is that the number of homicides per 100k in 2022 rose to 4.7 versus 2.8 in 2012. On the face of it, this is a shocking change. Does it mean that you should put off travel to Chile due to insecurity?

To answer that, one needs to look at how the number compares with others to see the relative risk. For example, for the United States overall, the equivalent rate in 2021 was 7.8 deaths per 100k. Only twelve states had rates below Chile’s and the highest state rate, in Mississippi, was 23.7 per 100k. So, it’s still pretty safe to travel to Chile.

Ecuador

On the other hand, the rate in the Northern city of Esmereldas was 77 per 100k. Ecuador’s largest city, Guayaquil, was similarly high in the mid-60s per 100k. These two cities are among the most dangerous in the world due to gang violence driven by the drug trade. I wouldn’t recommend travel to either location at the moment. Ecuador overall has a rate of 24 per 100k, roughly double the rate of a decade ago.

Last month I wrote about hoping Ecuador’s government had more tools in its toolbox to halt the wave of violence the country is experiencing. Well, it turns out they did.

Ecuador’s State Security Council recommended to President Lasso that he name seven drug gangs as terrorist organizations and allow the military to act against them as national security threats. While not naming any specific group, the President did issue a decree directing the Armed Forces to execute operations to protect the nation from terrorist activities in accordance with international agreements, the Ecuadorian Constitution, and Ecuadorian law. Some concerning ommissions to the decree are who decides which people and groups are terrorists, what actions are “terrorist” or support terrorism, any restrictions on military actions, and an expiration or re-validation date. While it’s not suspending civil liberties like in Nicaragua, it’s easy to see this as a blunt instrument with significant opportunities for misuse.

One included element in the decree acknowledges the possibility of abuse. It directs the national agency responsible for the prison system to maintain strict security procedures for any military or police members jailed for activities during anti-terror operations. Specifically, the decree directs that their physical security be guaranteed while in prison. I’m torn between respect for the government acknowledging that abuses happen during anti-terror operations and shock that they didn’t add any limits or restrictions (geographic or otherwise) on the operations. As written, this decree is essentially a blank check for military support to police actions for the indefinite future. Is this the right tool for the job? That’s a good question. The track record for this type of military support to internal security in other countries like Mexico and Colombia is decidedly mixed. While the initial operations have been successful in capturing senior gang leadership, only time will tell if they will have a positive impact on growing insecurity.