Ecuador Worries Me

Levels of crime and violence are rising and spreading across the country.

This is going to be one of the “things are ugly” posts I really didn’t want to write. I loved my time there, but over the last year or so there has been a definite turn for the worse on the security front in Ecuador. I’ve written in the past about gang violence, prison riots, and attacks on the National Police and those things continue. The really concerning part is that the instability is expanding. It’s to the point that my wife and I had a conversation about personal security prior to her latest trip to Ecuador.

We decided it was still safe to travel based on her destinations and experience. Then, for the first time ever, she was a target of a “mustard scam” in Quito. That’s where someone squirts you with something messy, like mustard, and their accomplice “helps” you clean up while picking your pocket. She handled it perfectly and nothing was taken, but this was in the historic center of Quito in the middle of the day. That just didn’t happen five years ago.

Let’s take a closer look at what has got me so concerned about Ecuador.

Worrying trends

Early last year a number of our friends started talking about how bad crime was in Guayaquil and Quito. I have to admit to taking it with a grain of salt as they said similar things when we lived in Quito. Back then we thought it was a little overblown, all major cities have crime and it wasn’t like it was at Buenos Aires levels or anything. Then there were the awful prison riots caused by gang wars and in October 2022, the government responded by moving prisoners in order to break up the leadership structure. In November 2022, the gangs responded with groundbreaking attacks on police and infrastructure in the city of Guayaquil and Esmereldas province. One of my first newsletters was about the attacks and the government’s fairly effective response. It now appears the “mano duro” tactic of declaring states of exception with curfews, reduced civil rights and the use of the Armed Forces in police roles only worked in the short term. The combined truce of the gangs inside Ecuador’s prisons didn’t extend much further than their gates.

The numbers for the first quarter of 2023 aren’t pretty. Homicides look to double the 2021 rates, kidnappings are already at 60% of 2022’s total, two mayoral candidates were murdered during election season, and insecurity is spreading to new areas along the coast. It’s bad enough that in January a regional Gallop poll showed 64% of Ecuadorians said they felt insecure. That’s the highest rate in Latin America. So what’s the driver behind this?

Drug Trafficking Metastacizes

Like so many Latin American security issues, it appears drug trafficking is at the root of the rising insecurity. Ecuador has been a crossroads for narcotics moving to Europe and the U.S. for years and the problem is growing. Ecuador recently moved up to number two in the region, only behind Colombia, in the tonnage of drugs seized. If one assumes the quantity of drugs seized is related to the quantity of drugs shipped, then Ecuador’s role in the global trade has steadily grown. In any shipping venture, increased volume results in increased requirements for logistical support. In Ecuador’s case, the major global players are meeting that need by subcontracting to local gangs. It’s this subcontracting that’s behind the rising insecurity.

Historically, the smuggling and drug transport industry has been isolated from most Ecuadorian’s experience. I think many saw it as just another means of making a living that didn’t affect their daily lives as the drugs were just transiting Ecuador heading to the global “North.” Sure there were criminal gangs and problems with violence, but that only happened if one was directly involved in the trade. If you weren’t, the gangs didn’t bother you. With the fragmentation of the trade, that relationship has changed.

Now the main networks have “off-shored” their transport network to local gangs to streamline management and concentrate their own efforts on the more profitable aspects of trafficking. Local gangs have been happy to fill the gap. So instead of a seamless network controlled by a single cartel with few local ties, one finds a patchwork of local networks controlled by no single entity. Like any business, those local networks want to expand their markets, leading to conflict.

It’s a scenario played out across time and place, from Chicago during Prohibition to the Golden Triangle in the 1970s and Mexico in the 1980s. Gangs will compete for market share, expand the “services” they provide and corrupt government officials to make their lives easier. We’re seeing all of this in Ecuador.

The intergang conflict caused the prison riots I mentioned above. It also is a major contributor to the rise in the homicide rate, especially in Guayaquil and Esmeraldas province. There have also been nearly a dozen attacks on hospitals as gangs search for wounded rivals. Perhaps the scariest result is the rise of “schools” where kids as young as 10 are trained as gunmen, with the best being hired out to work with international networks.

Kidnapping and protection rackets are the newest additions to the services offered. As noted above, kidnapping has skyrocketed and is starting to branch out. It’s not only the wealthy in Guayaquil who are targeted, middle and lower-income people like taxi drivers are being targeted with ransoms in the tens of thousands of dollars. Protection, or “vaccination” as it’s called in Ecuador, rackets have also increased. The latest spin on these is taping remotely detonatable explosives to a private security guard when the shop owner wouldn’t pay up. Fortunately for the guard, the police were able to disarm the explosives.

While criminal influence on Ecuadorian politics has been talked about for years, mainly by the political party not in the majority, none of the recent spate of corruption scandals of senior officials have hinged on drug money. There have been a number of low-level members of the military and police who have been arrested for aiding traffickers. With the number of officials under investigation for taking bribes or mishandling government contracts, I cannot believe there is no drug trafficker-funded corruption. So, I’m going to leave it at “I wouldn’t be surprised.”

All of these add up to a real concern for Ecuadorians and visitors alike. Fortunately, Ecuador is not at the point of having local gangs controlling territory and collecting taxes like in Colombia and Mexico. But, who knows? The northern border with Colombia has been a no-go area for years due to the FARC and other Colombian armed groups establishing safe havens. If the government cannot establish better control over these gangs throughout its territory, that may be in the future.

So, what’s a person to do?

I think the best tactic in the near to mid-term is “watchful waiting.” The government is delivering on its promise of increasing support to policing, the first 400 of some 2000 additional police for Guayaquil arrived at the end of March, along with 130 vehicles and the opening of a centralized command center. If these are used well, there could be a positive result. However, the government has also just expanded the ability of citizens to use firearms for personal defense. If the U.S. experience is any indicator, this will likely not have a positive impact on crime or deaths. Hopefully, the Lasso administration has something else in the toolbag to help stem this rising tide.

Bottom line - I’m worried about the path Ecuador is on and I’m not seeing a lot of positive news on the horizon.