Update on Ecuador and Argentina Notes

Ecuadorian Progress

The government of Ecuador publishes a daily press release touting the results of their public security efforts since the declaration of a state of “internal conflict.” In the first 30 days of the “internal armed conflict,” they have racked up some impressive numbers; 7275 arrests, 28 boats seized, 88,000 “security operations,” homicides are down more than 50%, and 48 tons of cocaine (23 tons in a single bust) seized.

Unfortunately, some things haven’t changed. The prisons remain gang bastions, kidnappings for profit happen daily, and many people continue to feel insecure.

On the whole, the Noboa government has, so far, been successful in using the increased powers granted by the declaration of emergency without stepping over the line to abuse. Senior military officials have greatly expanded their role in internal security while maintaining their strong limits on the use of force. I hope this continues when we see the nearly inevitable gang response to the crackdown.

Plan Ecuador?

I am concerned about calls for a “Plan Ecuador” along the lines of the twenty-year “Plan Colombia.” The original Plan Colombia, signed by President Clinton, was primarily focused on counter-narcotics via military and police forces. By the late 2010s, the plan had a decidedly counter-insurgency slant. By the end of the program, the U.S. government had provided some $10 billion in aid to Colombia. More than 20 years after the initial funding, what impact did Plan Colombia have?

Well, not much good. In 2001, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime estimated that 163,000 hectares were under coca cultivation in Colombia. The UN estimate for 2022 was 230,000 hectares under cultivation. So for our $10 billion, we added 57,000 hectares to coca cultivation, human rights violations by both criminal and government forces, and thousands of Colombian deaths.

Yes, that assessment is too simple. Colombian civil society did see some benefits and some programs supported by the plan did have positive results. However, I think it is undeniable that the 80 percent of the program spent on training and equipping security forces was money poorly spent in the long term.

Unfortunately, it seems the Ecuadorian and U.S. governments are on the path to making the same mistakes. So far, the bilateral press releases and photos have all been about trucks, boats, command posts, bulletproof vests, and security forces information sharing. What I haven’t seen are announcements about economic, trade, or educational programs to help Ecuadorian society increase opportunity so gangs, crime, or immigration are not the best or sole options for young people looking to support themselves and their families. Certainly, I am grateful for the response by both governments because the assistance was badly needed. But real success will only come by addressing the economic and social needs that are making gangs attractive regardless of security forces’ activities.

Travel to Ecuador?

I’m still in the super cautious camp on travel to Ecuador. While the recent progress has been welcome, the level of random security risk remains too high for my comfort level. That likely won’t change until the full 90-day state of exception runs its course. By then, I believe the state of the security situation will be clear, for good or ill.

Argentina Travel Notes

I had a reader request for some information about travel to Argentina. Happy to help! We loved the year and a half we spent in Buenos Aires.

Argentina’s economic problems and their impact are well covered. The failure of consecutive governments to take effective action helped Javier Milei win the Presidency in late 2023. Running on a libertarian platform, his proposed cuts to Argentine government and social programs are unprecedented. While there have been mass protests in Buenos Aires, to date they have been peaceful and short-lived. So the threat of running afoul of protest activities or police actions is low. If you do see or hear a protest, stay away.

From a traveler’s perspective, Argentina is relatively safe. Petty crime on the metro and the streets is high. Scopamine has been used to drug and rob people, so be aware of your drinks and don’t accept papers on the street. Keep a low profile, i.e. don’t flash high-priced clothing, phones or watches, don’t carry large amounts of cash, and don’t hail cabs on the street. It will also help to stay out of known problem areas of the city, like La Boca, especially at night.

On the national level, the U.S. State Department has an active travel advisory cautioning travelers to the city of Rosario due to crime. Other than that, just use your big city smarts and, most of the time, you’ll be fine.

As always, thanks for reading!