The Latest from Peru and Ecuador

Protests, crime, and weather related concerns

Peru

I’ve written a lot about what’s happening in Peru. So it should be no surprise that really nothing has changed in the months since President Boularte stepped in after Pedro Castillo’s failed autocoup. Corruption is rife, no early elections are on the horizon, and no one in the security forces or civilian government has been held accountable for protester deaths. The most recent polling in March 2023 shows agreement that nearly no Peruvian believes their government works. It also showed that 58 percent of Peruvians have little or no interest in politics. One has to wonder how long this state of indifference and Boularte’s administration will last in the face of upcoming challenges.

The closest “alligator to the boat” is the upcoming “Third Taking of Lima” by groups of rural, indigenous people. Planned for 19 July, this protest and occupation seems to be much more organized and planned than the first two which took place immediately after President Boularte assumed power. A huge sign of this organizing is the commitment by the national organization of indigenous community “ronderos” or “patrols” to provide 30,000 members to keep the peace and rout government infiltrators. These Peruvian government-approved groups maintain the peace and punish community members who violate norms using traditional methods. I’m not familiar enough with Peruvian customs to know what those methods include in Peru. In Ecuador, an example of an indigenous punishment is whipping someone with stinging nettles. This level of self-policing was not present in either of the other protests.

Groups in Arequipa, Puno, and other Sierra communities have committed protesters in the tens of thousands. Trade and government unions have also pledged marchers in Lima and other Peruvian communities. The organizers say they plan to stay in Lima until their goals are met; President Boluarte resigns, Congress is closed and new national elections are called. I have the sense that these nationwide protests will be a significant challenge to President Boularte.

President Boularte hasn’t helped calm the waters. She reacted to Congressional inaction by declaring any hope of early elections was dead, slow rolling her participation in an investigation on the deaths allegedly caused by security forces during the initial protests, and responding to a question about future protests with; “For the love of God! How many more deaths do they want.”

Her response to that question highlights perfectly what I see as a major vulnerability of this government; the lack of any accountability for protester deaths. Many international organizations have released reports or investigated protester deaths, the use of deadly force, and human rights violations that occurred during previous protests. The major ones have come from the Organization of American States, the New York Times (gift link), and Amnesty International. A common theme in each is the misuse of lethal force by both military and police forces. I have been shocked by the lack of accountability for the use of deadly force and the actual denial of authority over or responsibility for troop actions by leaders at the senior military and Cabient level. The government and security forces discount the cost of impunity against protesters at their own peril.

For travel and business in Lima, flights and ground transport into and out of Lima will be affected by protests. For those in the city during the protest; be aware of local news, avoid march routes, and plan for problems. These cautions apply to Arequipa, Puno, and the Sacred Valley as well.

Ecuador

On the positive side; the ramp-up to national elections in August is proceeding without major controversy, the first projects in the Galapagos funded by environmental “blue bonds” are due to start this month, and the government is making good progress planning and budgeting for the impact of 2023’s strong El Nino weather cycle.

On the negative side, the news is not so good.

While the addition of military forces to assist police operations has reduced violence in Guayaquil and allowed for the revocation of the states of exception in the South, crime overall has not lessened. Perhaps worse, the sense of insecurity has grown and resulted in an increase in vigilantism across Ecuador. This has been especially true in Quito, which previously felt isolated from the violence on the coast. Not that the residents don’t have a reason to feel this way; homicides in the first six months of 2023 totaled 129, that’s up from 68 in the same period in 2022. The result has been an increased desire for self-protection that extends further than neighborhood watch. Last month neighbors in North Quito attacked a “crime house” with molotov cocktails and burned it to the ground, resulting in one death. National and local governments really have to step up their game in regards to community security or the vacuum could be filled by local “civil defense” groups. Groups of this kind have a long and bloody history across Latin America, which so far hasn’t included Ecuador. I hope that trend continues.

Another negative data point is the recent InSight Crime report (English) on homicides in Latin America. Esmeraldas has the awful distinction of having the third-highest homicide rate in Latin America, 81 per 100k residents, behind cities in Mexico (110) and Venezuela (90).

Following on the heels of a rise in crime and the Ecuadorian government’s overall lackluster response, the U.S. Embassy in Quito issued the first major changes to their security warning since before I was on the staff there. The advisory is significantly different than the previous version. NotYourAverageAmerican.com recently published an excellent explainer about the changes and how a traveler should use them when making travel decisions. Their graphic below shows the new Level 3 “Reconsider Travel” and Level 4 “Do Not Travel” cities and areas:

These changes were a surprise to me. I remember discussions about changing the advisory levels when I was the Senior Defense Official there as being fairly controversial due to their impacts on Embassy business (we had to follow them too), commercial interests, and our relationship with the Ecuadorian government. I take the changes as a good sign of U.S. and Ecuadorian seriousness about security.

It was a pleasant surprise to see Sucumbios province move from Level 4 to 3. This gives a much-needed update to the advisory, acknowledges conditions there have improved, and opens up some great jungle lodges for travel. The addition of the coastal provinces of Manabi and Santa Elena, both traditional vacation destinations for Quitenos, to Level 3 is a significant change. Conditions in both have steadily worsened over the last two years, including assassinations of government officials. I’d still go to both provinces, but I’d be more cautious about where and when I was out and about.

Quick Notes

Colombia - The ELN has agreed to a six-month ceasefire starting in July. It’s taken three rounds of negotiation since November of last year to get here.

Bolivia - Extremely low temperatures have taken a heavy toll on plantings of grains, sugar cane, tomatoes, and onions. The failed crops have caused shortages across Bolivia and led to a jump in prices. The combination has led to the declaration of emergencies in a number of Bolivian cities, including Santa Cruz, Bolivia’s farm export hub. The Bolivian national weather service expects the cold to last until at least August.