Elections, Security, Weather and Mosquitos

Ecuador, Chile and Peru

Ecuadorian Elections

The unprecedented assassination of Presidential Candidate Fernando Villavicencio rocked the nation and highlighted how bad the security situation has become in Ecuador. A former legislator and investigative reporter who was sentenced to, but never served, 18 months in jail during the Correa administration for his reporting about governmental corruption. Villavicencio’s death has also raised questions about the levels of corruption in Ecuadorian police and political parties. While police have six Colombian citizens in custody, news about the investigation is scarce and fueling rampant speculation as to who planned the attack.

The actual elections on 20 August were successful with no major incidents or allegations of fraud. I had intended to give a rundown of the results and the election way ahead. Instead, I recommend you check out this great follow-up by the Latin American Risk Report:

Comments on Ecuador's election - August 2023

Ecuadorian Security Situation

Personal security, or rather the lack of it, was a major issue in the first round election. This was amplified after the Villavicencio assassination. By nearly every measure, the situation is getting worse and insecurity is spreading outside the traditional “unsafe areas” of Guayaquil and the Esmeraldas Province. Attacks against political figures in Santa Elena, the killing of Manta’s Mayor, increasing homicides in Quito, and a rise in targeted kidnapping of business owners or their family members are among the most concerning trends over the last year or so. The complex ambush and kidnapping of the former Mayor of Quito’s daughter two blocks from the Colombian and Argentine ambassador’s residencies is a glaring example of the freedom of action available to criminal groups at the moment.

With all this in mind, we recently started planning our next trip to Ecuador in October. I have to admit, for the first time ever, I was not immediately comfortable with the trip. After considering our trip and the specifics of the security situation, we decided it was safe to travel because we would be outside major cities for most of the trip and, so far, tourism-specific incidents remain at the petty crime level.

What would change that assessment? The major tripwires include; roadblocks targeting intercity busses or tourism vans, hostel/lodge/hotel-based robberies (basically locking people in and stealing their valuables), kidnapping of tourists for ransom (express kidnappings to force ATM withdrawals are a different threat) and /or shootings in areas focused on tourism vs. everyday life (i.e. Plaza Grande or Plaza San Fransisco in Quito). All of these have occurred in Latin America at one time or another and buses have been (rarely) targeted in Ecuador, so none of them are unthinkable. However, they all remain unlikely. If that changes, so will my assessment.

Flooding in Chile

In case one needs a reminder that it’s winter south of the equator, the current situation in Chile provides it. Truly horrible flooding has led to emergency declarations in four southern Chilean states. At least 5000 people have been displaced and 30 communities are completely flooded. This is the second severe rain event in Chile since July and may have been worsened due to the on-going El Nino weather cycle.

Dengue in Peru

Adding to the political unrest I’ve written about here, Peru is also in the midst of an unprecedented outbreak of dengue. According to the Peruvian Government (super slow loading website), current infections to date in 2023 top 235,000 with 400 deaths. In contrast, infections in 2019 (the last time I was there) totaled 5853. For the math minded reader, the 2023 infection rate is a little more than 40 times the 2019 one.

The U.S. CDC assesses the dengue risk in Peru at Level 1 (Normal Precautions). I find that understates the case. I recommend using the Peruvian government site above to find current information about infections and deaths prior to travel in order to get a travel area-specific sense of the possibility of infection.

So why be concerned about dengue given a fatality rate of less than one percent? For me, the measures to reduce the risk of catching something once called “breakbone fever” are very manageable and worth the effort. And those same measures also reduce the risk of catching those other nasty diseases like chikungunya, yellow fever, and zika. It’s like wearing a seatbelt. Why wouldn’t you?

All the measures come down to a single idea, don’t get bitten by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Probably the best way to do this is to wear long sleeves and pants pre-treated with permethrin. Angie at Not Your Average American recently wrote an article talking about her preparations for a trip to the Ecuadorian Amazon. They worked really well because she escaped without a single bite!

Thanks for reading and feel free to ask any questions in the comments.