Current Security Situation in Ecuador
We're in uncharted territory
So, what happened?
In case you haven’t seen the current news on Ecuador, the Ecuadorian President has declared a state of internal conflict due to nationwide attacks by drug gangs following a declaration of a state of emergency. The President also declared twenty two gangs as terrorist organizations. Here’s a good summary (gift link) from the New York Times.
Boz over at the Latin America Risk Report published a great analysis of the situation earlier this week:
I completely agree with both his view of this as two different, simultaneous, conflicts and that the situation is going to get worse in the short term. Lots of moving parts across all sections of the Ecuadorian government, not just the security forces. I am less than fully confident they will be able to smoothly transition from a stressed government into a crisis government. Expect to see some missteps and direction changes in the days ahead.
Short-Term Travel Recommendations
From the point of view of travelers already in Ecuador, there are going to be some changes in your ability to get around. Buses and tourism operators are going to cancel and delay travel. The company responsible for Ecuador’s airports has already issued new security measures for use nationwide that will add significant time to getting into any airport due to vehicle inspections. Plan well ahead for internal travel and monitor the Ecuadorian government's social media channels for the latest. Those will likely be your best source. The U.S. State Department has not issued an update to local security conditions as of yet. They have been more than typically engaged about Ecuador, so I’m hopeful
If you’re planning on going to Ecuador within a month or two, you need to consider carefully where you're traveling inside Ecuador and how you're moving around the country. NotYourAverageAmerican.com published an excellent explainer in June 2023 about changes to the U.S. travel advisory and how a traveler should use them when making travel decisions. Their graphic below shows the Level 3 “Reconsider Travel” and Level 4 “Do Not Travel” cities and areas:
Back in June 2023, we were willing to support travel with reasonable precautions in most of Ecuador. Now, that recommendation has to be to delay travel for the short term. There are just too many security unknowns for us to recommend otherwise.
Possible futures
The declaration of a national “state of internal conflict” by President Lasso shows how seriously his administration takes these attacks. The last time this status was declared was in 1995 during the Cenepa War with Peru and that was only in the direct combat areas. Given this declaration, the gloves are off for Ecuadorian security forces, giving them an unusual pre-approval for the use of lethal force.
Whether the government can produce actionable intelligence for operations is a huge question. This has been a significant problem in the past for the National Police. Corruption and a very disjointed intelligence system are both elements contributing to this failure. Only time will tell if the government can overcome those challenges.
If it cannot, this situation will only get worse with continued gang impunity and ineffective government crackdowns (much like the last two years). The threat of Ecuador devolving into a country ruled by fear of government or drug gang death squads remains unlikely, but not impossible.