Andes Roundup Time

Elections, Security, Corruption, and Carnival across the Andes

Colombia

The Colombian government started its next round of talks in Mexico City with the last remaining guerilla group, the ELN. These talks have been a bit rocky. President Pedro claimed a bilateral truce and the ELN rejected the notion saying they had agreed to no such thing. Then right at the start of the second round of talks, the ELN kidnapped a Colombian Army soldier from a village in the South. But, the talks started on schedule and are progressing. That, at least, is good news.

Colombia’s President met with Venezula’s on 15 February. This was the first trip to the border for Maduro as President. The purpose of the meeting was to sign a new trade agreement to reduce trade barriers and regain some of the trade lost when the Colombian government shut the border in 2019. The two Presidents hope to see better than $1.7 billion in 2023 as a result of the border opening and agreement. While I am loath to see any support to the Maduro regime, increased trade will allow people on both sides of the border an opportunity to improve their livelihoods, which is good for all.

It has been good to see the increase in Ecuador-Colombian security activities along their common border. This is a long-needed improvement in information sharing and operational coordination in a very insecure part of the region. With the current security situation, I would not be willing to re-do the trip thru Southern Colombia we took in 2018 , but I am hopeful.

And the second-largest Carnival celebration in the world went off without major problems. More than 660,000 people visited Barranquilla on Colombia’s Caribean Coast to enjoy four days of revelry prior to the start of Lent. I haven’t made it to Barranquilla yet, but it looks like quite the party.

Ecuador

Ecuador successfully held national elections on 5 February to select regional governors and city mayors. Also on the ballot were 8 constitutional referendum questions proposed by President Lasso’s administration. In a nutshell, the election was a disaster for President Lasso and a runaway victory for ex-President Correa’s “Citizen’s Revolution” party. Not only did President Lasso lose every referendum question, the two largest Ecuadorian cities and the majority of the countri’s provinces are now led by members of Correa’s party. In fact, the mayor of the largest city in Ecuador, Guayaquil, changed party for the first time in 30 years.

While this level of defeat may not be a major issue in many countries, in Ecuador it has led to Congress starting the process to remove Lasso from power due to a lack of confidence in his ability to govern. The same reason was used by the four major indigenous groups to withdraw from negotiations with the government on a wide slate of issues coming from last year’s national strikes.

Security concerns are not helping President Lasso either. We’ve seen an uptick in violent crime in Quito (including gunmen robbing an entire restaurant at once), continued deaths in Guayaquil due to gang activity, and multiple Attorney General investigations of widespread corruption in government contracting (including ex-President Moreno and the father-in-law of President Lasso). Any goodwill generated by his response to last year’s gang attacks in Guayaquil has faded away.

Oh, and it’s likely that the next round of national strikes calling for President Lasso to resign will start in March.

I don’t see Ecuador as in as bad a shape as it was early this century, but I would recommend visitors definitely heed their Embassy’s warnings about no-go areas and stay very alert to their surroundings while traveling to this wonderful country.

Peru

The political situation caused by ex-President Castillo’s self-coup hasn’t improved much. The most recent Instituto de Estudios Peruanos poll sums it up nicely: 6% of the population approves of the Peruvian Congress, 15% approve of President Boularte, and 69% want new elections in 2023. All of these numbers are down since the last poll in January. The criticisms of the Congress as self-serving and out of touch have been validated during the course of the failed efforts to have new elections in 2023. None of the ten proposals by different parties in Congress and the President have been able to find enough votes to get out of Committee. It now appears sheer bureaucratic inertia will force elections to maintain their normal schedule in 2026.

Although the government has made efforts to address educational, infrastructure, and economic inequalities in the most affected regions of Southern Peru, its continued efforts to paint the protests as driven by outside actors (with no evidence) have not helped. A big first step would be to admit the historical focus of the government on Lima to the disadvantage of the “hinterlands” of the nation. Without such a step, the South will remain unstable.

I’ll be doing a specific Peru Warning Update this month as well to address the newest changes to my crisis indicators.

Bolivia

The Arce administration’s lack of any response to opposition calls for the release of political prisoners will likely result in legal action to remove President Arce from power in early March. While the Supreme Electoral Tribunal will likely not take action because the government does not recognize the opposition’s ability to submit requests, it does show follow thru from the national opposition meeting in January.

The conflict between Arce and former President Morales has also heated up. There have been back-and-forth accusations of corruption involving members of both families. This is very unusual behavior and highlights the personal nature of the competition between Arce and Morales. This excellent article from Foreign Policy lays out the history behind their feud. It will be very interesting to see how the actual campaign for President in 2025 plays out.

Another beautiful expression of Carnival in Oruro. Like Barranquilla, we haven’t had the chance to attend. Definitely on the list for the future. I especially like the uniquely Bolivian Carnival costumes.

Argentina

Nothing good to update here. Inflation is projected to rise faster than expected in 2023. The worse drought in 60 years continues to have a massive negative impact on the Argentine economy. Most recent projections on the monetary impact to corn and soy production are in. the $20 billion range. I expect this to have a global market impact as Argentina is the top producer of soy oil and meal, as well as the world’s number three producer of corn.

Argentina has also just “unilaterally ended” a 2016 agreement with Britian regarding economic issues in the Falkland (Malivinas) Islands. They also expressed an interest in re-opening talks regarding the soverignty of the islands. This is not expected to signal a heating of the soverignty question that led to war in the 1982. Britain has rejected any additional discussions on soverignty saying that the residents of the islands decided the issue in a 2013 referendum. Given the rich fishing areas and petroleum reserves surrounding the islands and Argentinas’ current economic woes, one can expect them to try for a better deal. I do have to wonder what changed to make Argentina believe they are in a position to get a better one.

Thanks for reading. If you have specific questions about any of these countries, let me know. I’d be happy to work with you.